Is your P(Doom) currently between 10% and 90%? (By 2050)
124
resolved Jun 8
Yes
No, it's lower than 10%
No, it's higher than 90%
See Results
For this question, we'll define P(Doom) as the likelihood of artificial intelligence causing human extinction or an outcome you consider similarly undesirable before the year 2050.
This question is inspired by recent discourse around Jan Leike, who recently resigned from OpenAI because of safety concerns, having previously said that his P(Doom) is 10%-90%:
This poll will be used to resolve this market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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