Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
Plus
12
Ṁ2042027
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
31% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
63% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?
29% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
39% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
33% chance
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
44% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
14% chance