Is Manifold's P(Doom) by 2050 currently between 10% and 90%? [Resolves to Poll]

46

1kṀ11k

resolved Jun 11

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will resolve based on the results of this poll:

The poll will close at noon PT on June 8th, which will be in the middle of Manifest.

This market resolves YES if more people answer "Yes" in the poll than the two "No" answers combined. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

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@ManifoldAI resolves YES (64 vs 53)

@Ziddletwix @Joshua

bought Ṁ20 NO

Shouldn't be higher than 50% when "No" is currently leading

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Related questions

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

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