![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FManifoldAI%2Fc5f7c3cd16f2.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Is Manifold's P(Doom) by 2050 currently between 10% and 90%? [Resolves to Poll]
Basic
46
Ṁ11kresolved Jun 11
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ600 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ207 | |
2 | Ṁ166 | |
3 | Ṁ158 | |
4 | Ṁ126 | |
5 | Ṁ111 |
Sort by:
Related questions
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
61% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
35% chance
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?
44% chance
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?
72% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?
40% chance
At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
67% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
39% chance