What is your P(doom)?
52
2026
<20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
>80%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
35% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
What's the p(doom) of monkeys?
13% chance
P(Doom) - Emmett Shear
Will the next president state a P(doom)?
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
93