What is your P(doom)?
54
2026
<20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
>80%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
What's the p(doom) of monkeys?
13% chance
Will the next president state a P(doom)?
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?
18% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
93
Sort by:
@evan I mean eventually the heat death of the universe will probably get us, if we survive everything else us so ~100% but that's not really a helpful line of reasoning.
People are also trading
Related questions
What's the p(doom) of monkeys?
13% chance
Will the next president state a P(doom)?
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?
18% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
93