SSI Top: SSI model #1 on ECI before 2028?
5
Ṁ1kṀ2152028
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Codename: SSITOP
Resolves YES if a model produced by Safe Superintelligence (SSI), released before January 1, 2028, holds the #1 general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score at any moment.
Even briefly holding first place counts. Epoch’s displayed central general-ECI estimates control; confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not.
The qualifying score must appear by April 30, 2028. If Epoch disappears, MNX will use the closest credible successor ranking.
Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which lab will have the #1 model on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 6, 2026?
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
29% chance
China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?
12% chance
Will the term Super Intelligence replace Artificial intelligence before EOY
4% chance
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
35% chance
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
11% chance
Will xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026?
18% chance
What grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
86% chance