SSI Top: SSI model #1 on ECI before 2028?
5
Ṁ1kṀ2152028
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Codename: SSITOP
Resolves YES if a model produced by Safe Superintelligence (SSI), released before January 1, 2028, holds the #1 general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score at any moment.
Even briefly holding first place counts. Epoch’s displayed central general-ECI estimates control; confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not.
The qualifying score must appear by April 30, 2028. If Epoch disappears, MNX will use the closest credible successor ranking.
Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?
12% chance
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
28% chance
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
13% chance
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
86% chance
Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?
25% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
85% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
39% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
69% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
72% chance