Codename: LEAP

The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) is a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI.

Subject to the fallback, partial-settlement, review, and amendment provisions below, contracts on this market settle to $1 if any AI model publicly released after this market first opens for trading and before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET is first displayed on Epoch AI's general ECI leaderboard with a central estimate at least 9.0 points higher than the highest general-ECI central estimate then displayed for any earlier-released model, and economically $0 otherwise. Displayed central estimates at the time of that first display control (canonical score file: https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv); confidence bounds and domain-specific indices do not count. Models released, or scores first displayed, before this market first opens for trading form the launch baseline and cannot constitute a qualifying jump; MNX expects to record the opening leaderboard snapshot, with a content hash, at listing. Determinations use the canonical score file as of the determination time; if no early settlement has occurred, the snapshot archived at the Measurement Cutoff controls. The qualifying event is an eligible model's release within the eligibility window; its first score may be published after the release deadline in due course.

A qualifying jump counts when first displayed and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard an apparent jump that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a non-general index, and may settle the market early after it determines the threshold was reached.

If Epoch re-anchors or rescales the general ECI and publishes a conversion, MNX may convert the 9.0-point margin using that mapping (reference anchors: Claude 3.5 Sonnet = 130.0, GPT-5 = 150.0). If Epoch is discontinued or MNX determines the general ECI is no longer timely, reliable, or comparable, MNX may determine whether an eligible release exceeded the record by the converted margin using alternative sources or methods in its sole discretion. A fallback determination that the margin was met resolves YES. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution source or method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available, including exchange-oracle observations; any such input is an internal market-derived settlement convention, not independent evidence about the threshold. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀