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MANIFOLD
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
5
Ṁ1kṀ952
2028
13%
chance

Codename: LEAP

 

Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record.

 

“Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model. Confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not count.

 

The score must be published by April 30, 2028. Ordinary later leaderboard recalculations do not undo a genuine first-published jump.

 


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