Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?
6
100Ṁ2002026
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if a model from a Chinese labs is listed at the top of the text leaderboard according to the Default sort at any point from now (Oct 23 2025) until EOY 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
People are also trading
Related questions
What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?
10% chance
Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
79% chance
Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?
40% chance
What organization will have the top OPEN model on the Text leaderboard on LMArena at end of 2025?
Will Moonshot top the lmarena leaderboard by EOY?
10% chance
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2025?
19% chance
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
96% chance