Will xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026? | Manifold

Will xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026?

14

Ṁ100Ṁ193

Dec 31

16%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves if, at any point before 2027, they are #1

https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence

leo 🐾 (@synthwavedd) on X

leo 🐾 (@synthwavedd) on X

xAI have made an incredible comeback From the days of Grok 4 -> 4.3, where they were trailing the frontier by far, they're now arguably the 3rd best lab in the world - behind only Anthropic and OpenAI And with this minor version jump yielding +5 on AA's Intelligence Index, and

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

bought Ṁ20 NO

Should be "before 2027" in the description.

@rg26 fixed thanks

People are also trading

Which lab will have the #1 model on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 6, 2026?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026?

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

OpenAI has AI CEO by EOY 2026?

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?

Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?

Will xAI merge with Anthropic before 2030?

Related questions

Which lab will have the #1 model on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 6, 2026?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026?

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

OpenAI has AI CEO by EOY 2026?

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?

Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?

Will xAI merge with Anthropic before 2030?