Resolution criteria

Neutron will resolve YES if Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket completes its first orbital flight before December 25, 2026. The first flight is expected to be in mid-2026, with the first flight vehicle expected to be shipped to Wallops during the first quarter of 2026. Resolution will be based on official confirmation from Rocket Lab or credible space industry sources (e.g., Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight.com) that the rocket has successfully reached orbit. A successful first flight requires reaching orbit; reaching suborbital altitudes or clearing the pad does not count. The market resolves NO if the first orbital flight does not occur by December 25, 2026.

Background

Neutron is a partially reusable, medium-lift, two-stage launch vehicle designed to deliver 13,000 kg to low Earth orbit and will focus on the growing megaconstellation satellite delivery market. The inaugural flight was originally planned for late 2025, but the company delayed it, saying more testing and qualification work was needed. Launch Complex 3 officially opened in August 2025 with a 700-ton launch mount, water tower, and propellant tank farm.

Considerations

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck stated he could not be more specific about the launch date than Q1 2026, as it depends on what is found during testing, including a hot-fire test of the first-stage engines. In September 2025, Rocket Lab planned to launch Neutron three times in 2026, suggesting confidence in achieving at least one orbital flight within the year if the first launch succeeds.