When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?

Question

Neutron is a partially reusable medium-lift two-stage rocket being developed by Rocket Lab. It has been scheduled to launch in 2025, but might slip to the further date.

This market will be resolved when Neutron rocket launches for the first time. For the purposes of this question, "launch" should involve the countdown reaching 0 and the rocket leaving the pad. I.e. Astra sideways launch would count, but an explosion right on the pad wouldn't.

I do not bet on my own markets.

If there is sufficient interest in this market, I'll add further markets about other milestones for Rocket Lab rockets.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2027-01-01, followed by Before 2026-10-01 and Before 2026-07-01 are most likely. See the market for live updates (25 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).