Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?
Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?
4
70Ṁ982027
63%
chance
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Haven-1 is a space station by VAST, to be launched in a single launch on a Falcon 9. Transit to and from will be done by Dragon. The launch of Haven-1 is currently NET August 2025.
For this market to resolve Yes, Haven-1 needs to be launched.
It does not need to be launched successfully.
It does not need to be visited by humans.
Release of the launch clamps counts as a launch.
If VAST's first station is launched on a Starship instead of a Falcon, that would still count. If they change the name of their first station, the new name counts for this market. The intention of this market is to see if VAST can launch their first station within the given time frame.
Will Haven-1 launch in 2025 or earlier?20%
Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?63%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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