Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.

This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).

Key details and edge cases:

• Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).

• Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.

• Delay/Scrub: If a launch attempt is scrubbed or delayed prior to liftoff, the market remains open and will wait for the actual first launch attempt.

• First Attempt: This market strictly applies to the very first launch attempt of the Neutron vehicle that clears the launch pad (i.e., achieves liftoff).

Background

Neutron is a partially reusable, medium-lift, liquid methane/liquid oxygen-fueled launch vehicle currently under development by Rocket Lab. It is designed to compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9, specifically targeting mega-constellation deployments, national security missions, and civil spaceflights.

Rocket Lab founder and CEO Sir Peter Beck has publicly stated that Rocket Lab's primary goal for Neutron's maiden flight is to achieve orbit on the first try, explicitly dismissing lesser milestones (such as "just clearing the pad") as a benchmark for success. As of August 2026, Rocket Lab's guidance targets delivering Neutron to the launch pad at Launch Complex 3 on Wallops Island, Virginia, in Q4 2026, with the narrowing end-of-year window making a debut in late 2026 or 2027 highly likely.

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