[tweet]Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [none of these happen in 2026], followed by Starship Refueling Demo and New Glenn Return to Flight are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Jun 21, 2026).

Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?

MANIFOLD

Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?

Ṁ1kṀ623

Dec 31

ALL

17%

Starship Refueling Demo

15%

New Glenn Return to Flight

13%

Neutron launch

55%

[none of these happen in 2026]

Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.

Market context

Rockets

Starship Launch Party

Commercial spaceflight

New Glenn

Neutron

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