[tweet]Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [none of these happen in 2026], followed by New Glenn Return to Flight and Starship Refueling Demo are most likely. See the market for live updates (16 traders, as of Sep 28, 2026).

Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?

MANIFOLD

Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?

Ṁ1kṀ3.2k

Dec 31

ALL

Starship Refueling Demo

18%

New Glenn Return to Flight

1.7%

Neutron launch

75%

[none of these happen in 2026]

Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.

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Starship Launch Party

Commercial spaceflight

New Glenn

Neutron

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For both launches (Neutron / New Glenn), we'll use a standard of clearing the pad, full success / orbit not required.

@EvanDaniel So for Starship refuelling would an aborted docking before planned refuel count as an adequate refuelling attempt?

If not, does a docking with planned prop flow but for some reason prop flow doesn't start?

or some other requirement for the minimum that has to be attempted/completed?