Kevin Agnew's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kevin Agnew bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
- Will, at the end of 2022 western teenagers spend more time in VR then in real live?NOṀ10
- Will, at the end of 2022 western teenagers spend more time in VR then in real live?NOṀ10
- Will Ravel Kopelman’s question about whether Dr P’s question will resolve correctly resolve in the same way as Dr P’s question?NOṀ5
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
60%
70%
- Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?NOṀ20
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ20
- Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?YESṀ20