Will the US open its borders to Ukrainian citizens before July 1st 2022?

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resolved Jul 21

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Resolves according to my judgement. The spirit of the question is that basically any Ukrainian citizen who makes it to the US is allowed to stay at least as long as Russia is attacking or occupying Ukraine. Ireland's recent action would count: https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-ukraine-simon-coveney-5691785-Feb2022/ Timing is according to US Pacific Time. Feb 24, 10:15am: I'm open to suggestions on how to operationalize.

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

I wish they would. I've been telling my friends in every discussion about Ukraine that this is what I wish the US gov would do. I just don't think it's likely they will. I suspect there's just too much generalized anti-immigration sentiment.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I am not expecting unlimited Ukrainians allowed to emigrate. Maybe technically it will resolve as YES by limiting people before "who makes it to the US" stage (stopping before border, refusing flights etc)

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Pretty unsure about this, but I think given the level of sympathy this has generated, the number of Ukranian people in the US already, the number of Ukranians in the EU, and the relative difficulty of getting to the US versus european nations, which probably have laxer immigration laws, I think there is decent odds the US would be willing to accept Ukranians who happened to wind up at the US.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

As someone familiar with immigration law, this question will need to be much more precisely worded. The US has already granted TPS, meaning any Ukrainian who arrived before 3/1 can stay until the government determines Ukraine is safe to return to. Ukranians who arrived after that date would have to file an asylum claim, but they will be highly likely to succeed. I doubt anyone will be involuntarily deported to Ukraine while the conflict is ongoing. I also think that the US will admit Ukrainian refugees, but I don't think they will modify the refugee admissions process, which requires sponsorship from either US based family or an accredited nonprofit and extensive background checks before the refugee is granted a visa. They could grant Ukrainians humanitarian parole, which would allow them to come to the US, but I expect this won't be granted to large numbers of people, as it would set a bad precedent. Keep in mind that as bad as Ukraine is, I'd still rather be there than someplace like Syria or Sudan.