Will Ravel Kopelman’s question about whether Dr P’s question will resolve correctly resolve in the same way as Dr P’s question?
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Ṁ894resolved Mar 7
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Close date updated to 2022-02-27 11:59 pm
Feb 25, 8:05am: For example, if they both resolve YES, this question resolves YES. If Dr P resolves NO and Ravel Kopelman resolves YES, this question resolves NO.
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm
Feb 28, 9:30am: if Ravel Kopelman resolves before Dr P (e.g. as N/A), I will consider that to mean that Dr P’s question will remain unresolved, and so my question will resolve YES.
Feb 28, 12:50pm: Hang on, my last update doesn’t make much sense. I should resolve NO in that case since the questions didn’t resolve the same. I feel suitably foolish.
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I think it's pretty clear this question is asking whether both Ravel and Dr P's answers will both resolve to the same thing (YES/YES or NO/NO, maybe NA/NA).
This question will resolve to YES if:
YES/YES - Trump wins.
NO/NO - Ravel commits fraud.
NA/NA - Seems not possible, should be NA/NO. So again, not seeing this unless Ravel commits fraud.
So I agree with @Lorenzo, only way this doesn't get resolved as NO is if Trump wins or Ravel or Ferruginous (but maybe not both - because then this would be back to NO??) commit fraud. Not sure what the baseline rate of fraud is but bet it's way lower than 5% (Dr P with that specific Trump question obv a specific case).
As I see it: if Dr. P questions resolves as N/A Raven claimed to resolve as NO, which is very likely to be interpreted by FerruginousDuck as not resolving the same way. Indeed no claims were made for PROB, but it's highly unlikely to lead to a situation where the two questions resolve in ways that FerruginousDuck considers to be the same.
5% would be the chance of one of Ravel and FerruginousDuck resolving fraudulently, which I think is about right, maybe even a bit high
Why are people buying so much? It's not certain what the question is asking, and we don't know how this will resolve if one or both questions remain unresolved, resolve PROB, or resolve N/A. Plus, the whole situation is uncertain even without those additional wrinkles. Am I missing something?