Will Lunar Gateway be cancelled before 2026?
Basic
3
Ṁ552025
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The Gateway will be considered to exist if it is in any lunar orbit, not just NRHO (Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit).
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Gateway modules must be in lunar orbit to prevent a YES resolution - modules in Earth orbit or sent to Mars would not prevent this from resolving YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@JoshuaWilkes I guess the other scenarios we need to worry about are Gateway modules in earth orbit and Gateway modules being sent to Mars and I think it's clear that neither of those would would stop this resolving YES
@JoshuaWilkes for my market I've rated those as Yes as well. If Gateway isn't in some lunar orbit then imo it's substantially different enough.
Related questions
Related questions
Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
Will an announcement be made before 2025 that the Boeing Starliner program will be curtailed?
30% chance
Will SLS be cancelled before 2026?
80% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2024?
5% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch later than 2025?
80% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2035?
23% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?
75% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2025?
18% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
28% chance
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?
24% chance