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Irigi avatar
Irigi
closes Jan 1, 2028
Space
Science
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2028?
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Other resolution criteria than time are the same as in the corresponding Metaculus market.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13785/first-occupation-of-lunar-gateway/

4 Positions
6 Trades
Sort by:
YES payouts
LoganTurner avatarLogan Turner
Ṁ210
NO payouts
Sailfish avatarSailfish
Ṁ98
HolgerBahren avatarHolger Bähren
Ṁ75
Mqrius avatarMqrius
Ṁ46
Sailfish avatar
Sailfish bought Ṁ30 NO from 49% to 38%
LoganTurner avatar
Logan Turner bought Ṁ40 YES from 30% to 49%
Sailfish avatar
Sailfish bought Ṁ30 NO from 39% to 30%
Mqrius avatar
Mqrius bought Ṁ25 NO from 53% to 39%
LoganTurner avatar
Logan Turner bought Ṁ37 YES from 20% to 53%
HolgerBahren avatar
Holger Bähren bought Ṁ50 NO from 50% to 20%

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