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MANIFOLD
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch before 2028?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ858
2027
6%
chance

  • Update 2026-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve to N/A if the Lunar Gateway program is cancelled.

  • Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Gateway modules are repurposed to a different lunar orbit, that still counts as a launch and the market resolves Yes. If repurposed to a non-lunar destination, it is considered cancelled and resolves N/A.

Market context
Artemis program
Space
SpaceX
Space exploration
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if repurposed with different bits going different places?

@ChristopherRandles I basically agree with what @Mqrius said in this market. If they are 'repurposed' to a different lunar orbit it would count, otherwise it has been cancelled.

@JoshuaWilkes https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/before-when-will-gateway-be-cancell?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

In this market

For consistency, this will resolve to N/A if Gateway is cancelled

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-first-lunar-gateway-module-cd217622c772?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

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