Other resolution criteria than time are the same as in the corresponding Metaculus market. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13785/first-occupation-of-lunar-gateway/ Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Lunar Gateway program is cancelled without ever being occupied, this market will resolve No.

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (12 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).

Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?

Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?

Ṁ150Ṁ885

2029

1.9%

chance

ALL

Other resolution criteria than time are the same as in the corresponding Metaculus market.

Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Lunar Gateway program is cancelled without ever being occupied, this market will resolve No.

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If the lunar gateway program is cancelled without it ever being occupied, will this resolve No?

The same, with shorter time horizon.