Basically who is first to the moon excluding the Apollo landings.
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If the CNSA keeps it low profile enough until it's about a year or so out, and USA will keep "burocrating" their moon mission along, then sure China could be first. It's not easy to hide a moon rocket though.
I also suspect they want to do something objectively useful there (e.g. mining preparations, or science), so that might cause delays. They are not Russia in the Cold War, they will play it reasonably safe, sure and well thought out. Just like their current capsule is a reworked Soyuz, somewhat larger and things are swapped. They're not the very first to the moon, so no hurry.
There are obviously things we would expect to know about a US launch that China will keep undisclosed for a lot longer, but overall they are being relatively open about their plans. Certainly at the moment there is no suggestion that their moon rockets will be hidden.
https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1663376891875835905?s=20
@JoshuaWilkes Yes, I meant more like if they go out and say "We will beat the USA in going back to the moon. China numba one, USA second!!1!", then the USA will beat them. That is how the US culture is, if someone taunts you, you come out first. Current US moon efforts seem to be a bit bureaucratic, so there will be delays if they don't step up.
@HenkPoley 😆 I guess it's too late now for them 🫣 Depending on if this catches on: "NASA administrator, Bill Nelson says that the USA is currently in a space race with China" https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1688980102762172416