Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ12k

2035

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Basically who is first to the moon excluding the Apollo landings.

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How is this so close? I thought USA has no way to go there for now.

@Eliza https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/04/nasas-moon-ship-and-rocket-seem-to-be-working-well-so-what-about-the-landers/

@Eliza I would characterize it like this:

People are betting with faith in Isaacman to turn the situation around - he has committed to a 2028 landing.

Probably the US could still beat China with an early 2029 landing, maybe even a late one. Until recently China had been pretty coy about whether its 2030 goal was by the end of or before - however this is now firming up as before

https://www.cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202602/t20260227_57278.html#:~:text=2026%E5%B9%B4%EF%BC%8C%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD2,%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%A7%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE%E3%80%82

bought Ṁ500 YES

I made it 69%, you're all welcome.

reposted

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/after-recent-tests-china-appears-likely-to-beat-the-united-states-back-to-the-moon/

predictedYES

I think title should say "a person" rather than "people"

@calderknight fair point

If the CNSA keeps it low profile enough until it's about a year or so out, and USA will keep "burocrating" their moon mission along, then sure China could be first. It's not easy to hide a moon rocket though.

I also suspect they want to do something objectively useful there (e.g. mining preparations, or science), so that might cause delays. They are not Russia in the Cold War, they will play it reasonably safe, sure and well thought out. Just like their current capsule is a reworked Soyuz, somewhat larger and things are swapped. They're not the very first to the moon, so no hurry.

@HenkPoley

There are obviously things we would expect to know about a US launch that China will keep undisclosed for a lot longer, but overall they are being relatively open about their plans. Certainly at the moment there is no suggestion that their moon rockets will be hidden.

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1663376891875835905?s=20

predictedYES

@JoshuaWilkes Yes, I meant more like if they go out and say "We will beat the USA in going back to the moon. China numba one, USA second!!1!", then the USA will beat them. That is how the US culture is, if someone taunts you, you come out first. Current US moon efforts seem to be a bit bureaucratic, so there will be delays if they don't step up.

predictedYES

@HenkPoley 😆 I guess it's too late now for them 🫣 Depending on if this catches on: "NASA administrator, Bill Nelson says that the USA is currently in a space race with China" https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1688980102762172416