Resolution criteria

• This resolves on China’s first crewed mission that successfully lands taikonauts on the lunar surface (soft landing achieved; mere lunar orbit or aborts don’t count). Outcome is determined from official post-mission reports/broadcasts by CMSA/Xinhua/CCTV; if unavailable, reputable wire services (Reuters/AP) may be used.

• Resolve to:

  • “YES, and she will be the first Chinese citizen to walk on the Moon” if a woman is the first to step onto the lunar surface on that mission, per official timeline/coverage.

  • “YES, and she will be the second Chinese citizen to walk on the Moon” if a woman steps onto the surface after a male crewmate from the same mission has already done so.

  • “YES, but she will remain in lunar orbit while others land” if a woman is assigned to that mission but does not ride the lander and stays in lunar orbit.

  • “NO” if no woman is on the crew of that first lunar-landing mission.

Background

• China targets a first crewed lunar landing “before 2030,” using two Long March 10 launches: one for the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft and one for the Lanyue lander, which then rendezvous and dock in lunar orbit. Two crew members transfer to the lander for descent and later re-dock for return to Earth. (english.www.gov.cn, chinadaily.com.cn)

• The Lanyue lander is designed to carry two astronauts; official naming and specs were revealed in 2024. (chinadaily.com.cn, global.chinadaily.com.cn)

• Hardware is advancing: China publicly tested elements of the Lanyue lander in 2025. (reuters.com)

• China has flown female astronauts (e.g., Liu Yang; Wang Yaping—first Chinese woman to perform a spacewalk), so a mixed-gender lunar crew is plausible. (chinadaily.com.cn, nasaspaceflight.com)

Considerations

• Egress order (who steps out first) determines which “YES” surface option resolves; use the order stated by CMSA/Xinhua live coverage or mission summaries. (english.www.gov.cn)

• The Lanyue’s two-seat design means assignment decisions (lander vs. orbiter) matter; a woman could be on the mission yet remain in lunar orbit, which maps to a distinct “YES” option. (chinadaily.com.cn)

• Update 2025-08-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market concerns China's current official crewed lunar-landing program.

  • If that program is canceled, the market will resolve N/A.

  • If another mission occurs first and makes what qualifies as "China's first crewed lunar landing" genuinely ambiguous, the market will resolve N/A.