Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2024?
41
730
4.6k
Dec 31
99%
Falcon Heavy
95%
LVM3
90%
Starship
89%
Proton M
74%
Ariane 6
72%
Zhuque 2
63%
Chollima 1
60%
Angara 1.2
54%
Vikram 1
48%
Tianlong 3
46%
Vega C
46%
RFA One
46%
CASC XLV
41%
Long March 12
37%
Pallas 1
33%
New Glenn
33%
Gilmour Space Eris
33%
Orbex Prime
27%
ABL RS1
27%
Skyrora XL

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

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I believe this can resolve

New Glenn

What counts as 'reaching orbit'? Does it have to be an Earth orbit or would a Mars orbit count, or is it based on reaching orbital velocities? And does it count based on when the launch occurs or when the orbit is achieved? (Particularly thinking in regards to EscaPADE which I believe is supposed to be launched directly into an interplanetary trajectory - but also would just be useful to know in general)

@Nat Earth orbit

If any vehicle is launch directly onto an interplanetary trajectory that would count too.

In the unlikely case of a launch close to midnight of December 31st as long as the launch started prior to midnight local time it would count if it subsequently reached orbit

bought Ṁ10 Answer #90f13d6888ac YES

Launching now!

bought Ṁ10 Starship YES

@JoshuaWilkes that didn't go too well!

Is this enough to resolve yes?

@Nat it looks like it. Will just wait a little for more reports to come in, but assume a YES resolution

bought Ṁ200 Answer #c23d25640a43 YES

@Multicore yeah, free money if you want to bet it closer to 100 before I resolve

@JoshuaWilkes it hasn't shown your bet when I wrote that 🤣

Apparently there's a Japanese rocket called Kairos that is supposed to be launching in a month.

https://www.space-one.co.jp/news/news_20240126_e.pdf

bought Ṁ100 of Answer #b3b9f128656d YES
sold Ṁ3 of Vega C YES

@JoshuaWilkes Also, how did you even find the CASC XLV? There is so little information about it online

@Nat thank you, been waiting for someone to notice the Qaem-100 🤩

You can buy it up to 100 if you like, I'll resolve it soon (it bugs me when people don't hoover up good mana)

@Nat I'm pretty sure I read something about the XLV on one of the China Space Twitter accounts and then I found just enough online (maybe in Chinese?) to justify putting it on here, even though I think it won't launch this year.

bought Ṁ185 of Answer #b3b9f128656d YES

@JoshuaWilkes Haha thank you, I think that's about as high as I can reasonably get it

@JoshuaWilkes And ah that makes sense re the XLV. Yeah the only real info I could find about it (I assume the same that you found) was a single press release in Chinese that wasn't even about the XLV - it was about a new pad to be completed in 2024 and mentioned that the XLV would be the first rocket to launch from it. I know China's not exactly the most public when it comes to that sort of thing but it was still kinda weird to find so little info at all

Vega C

Apparently now scheduled for November 15. Only needs a month and a half of schedule slip to fall off the 2024 calendar.

Gravity-1 just launched something to orbit for the first time. It's not an option in this market but I figured it's nice to share firsts here anyway :)

@Mqrius it's a funny looking one as well!

@JoshuaWilkes Yup, kinda cool! Though everyone is (rightly imo) asking why they didn't use the actual ocean as a flame trench. A lot of debris flew around, Starship IFT-1 style.

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