Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2024?
69
4.6kṀ45k
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
YES
Vega C
Resolved
YES
Angara 1.2
Resolved
YES
Long March 5
Resolved
YES
Delta IV Heavy
Resolved
YES
Zhuque 2
Resolved
YES
CASC XLV
Resolved
YES
Long March 12
Resolved
YES
H3
Resolved
YES
Vulcan Centaur
Resolved
YES
Falcon Heavy
Resolved
YES
Ariane 6
Resolved
YES
Angara A5
Resolved
YES
Long March 8
Resolved
YES
Qaem 100
Resolved
NO
Starship
Resolved
NO
SLS
Resolved
NO
Rocket Lab Neutron
Resolved
NO
Stoke Space Nova
Resolved
NO
New Glenn
Resolved
NO
Proton M

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

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bought Ṁ400 YES

Assuming Zhuque 2E counts for the Zhuque 2 option, Zhuque 2 can resolve YES

Vega (not Vega C) launched but not on list.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Not looking good for a 2024 launch for RS1 😢

Ariane 6 resolves Yes! It just passed perigee at 331km altitude.

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 40% order

@JoshuaWilkes This can resolve Yes now.

Please read the description

Either you can engage respectfully, or, respectfully, I'm going to block you

This question defined Starship near-orbits as not reaching orbit. It's fine if you disagree with that, but it's not going to impact how this question resolves.

For other readers:

the near-orbit definition has been in the description since December 2023

This same definition of reaching orbit is used over almost every single Starship/Space market on the site. You are the vast minority here.

Starship IFT-3 and IFT-4 both did not reach an orbital trajectory. Ift-3 planned a reignition-burn-test but ultimately didn't use it, and the trajectory they were in still went straight into the Indian Ocean. The plan was that if they did test the reignition burn then they'd end up a bit further West in the Indian Ocean.

So it's not about requiring a full revolution or not. Starship has simply never been on any path or trajectory where it could theoretically make that full revolution.

To be absolutely clear:

They literally had to burn for reentry so as not to stay up there.

This is false, and I think that's the miscommunication going on here.

They literally had to burn for reentry so as not to stay up there.

This is false, and I think that's the miscommunication going on here.

Exactly. Perigee was negative altitude:

This article states that the CASC XLV is actually the Long March 12 (which would explain why we haven't heard anything about the XLV and why they were both set to launch start of June when the new launchpad opened), though I can't find any other sources explicitly stating that so I'm not a 100% sure.

Also not sure if that would mean that the XLV was another name for it, or maybe they wanted to keep the fact that it was the LM 12 a secret, or maybe it was even a mistranslation?

Either way though, if it does turn out to be the same rocket, how would you resolve the two answers?

@Nat can you link to the article?

@JoshuaWilkes Oops yeah I linked it in the first word of my comment but I hadn't realised how non-visible that is lol, here you go: https://spacenews.com/long-march-6a-launches-second-yunhai-3-satellite/

It's right at the bottom of the article

@Nat my sense is that the best thing to do right now is to leave both open. If it turns out they are not the same rocket, then it's all good.

If they are, then in principle I can't see anything wrong with both resolving YES or NO simultaneously. Not ideal obviously but on balance seems fairer than resolving XLV (I believe the second one to be added) to NO now

I believe this can resolve

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