Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
13
48
Ṁ170Ṁ1k
2027
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The same booster module must have been confirmed to be launched twice
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Would be a very impressive fluke!
Might I recommend just "launch twice"? This is the simplest criterion, you don't need to talk about what counts as recovery or anything.
Still vulnerable to Ship of Theseus ambiguity if it gets reburbished heavily, but seems like the best criteria still.
Launching three times seems unnecessary but fine, but don't mention recovery, that just confuses things. Launching already sufficiently implies previous recovery.
Related questions
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
5% chance
How many launches will SpaceX successfully send to orbit in 2024?
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
46% chance
Will a reusable orbital rocket booster be re-flown by a company other than SpaceX before 2025?
32% chance
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?
70% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
25% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
83% chance
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will Rocket Lab have successfully reflown an Electron Booster before 2026?
63% chance
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
76% chance