Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
20
1kṀ24942027
91%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The same booster module must have been confirmed to be launched twice
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?
92% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
4% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
95% chance
Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
93% chance
When will a non-SpaceX propulsively landed orbital booster be reflown for the first time?
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
16% chance
Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?
12% chance
Sort by:
Would be a very impressive fluke!
Might I recommend just "launch twice"? This is the simplest criterion, you don't need to talk about what counts as recovery or anything.
Still vulnerable to Ship of Theseus ambiguity if it gets reburbished heavily, but seems like the best criteria still.
Launching three times seems unnecessary but fine, but don't mention recovery, that just confuses things. Launching already sufficiently implies previous recovery.
People are also trading
Related questions
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?
92% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
4% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
95% chance
Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
93% chance
When will a non-SpaceX propulsively landed orbital booster be reflown for the first time?
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
16% chance
Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?
12% chance