OpenAI release GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 by what month?
118
778
4.9K
2025
3%
Before May
12%
Before June
32%
Before July
45%
Before August
57%
Before September
63%
Before October
65%
Before November
68%
Before December
70%
Before January 2025

Business insider claims it'll be called GPT-5 and is expected mid-year.

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.

All options resolve NO as that month arrives, until when the next model is released and all remaining options resolve YES.

I apologize for the probable duplicate, but I searched high and low for a version of this question that did not care about what they named it and could not find one. If there is such a question, please direct me to it and I will N/A this question.

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bought Ṁ11 Before July YES

I think it’ll be released with the new Sora model right before July

bought Ṁ30 Before May YES

April 2

All of these markets in this comment should be arbable, as I believe they count either 4.5 or 5.

Beware of the various other markets, which have criteria requiring it to be specifically named one or the other.

These markets are MAYBE arb, depending on the exact name:

@Joshua But wait, there's more!

@Joshua Thanks for posting all of these. In addition to these 243 markets, I've identified an additional 82 that may be arbable.