OpenAI release GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 by what month?
128
976
5.3K
2025
2%
Before May
16%
Before June
34%
Before July
48%
Before August
60%
Before September
65%
Before October
72%
Before November
80%
Before December
90%
Before January 2025

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.

All options resolve NO as that month arrives, until when the next model is broadly released and all remaining options resolve YES.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ11 Before July YES

I think it’ll be released with the new Sora model right before July

bought Ṁ30 Before May YES

April 2

All of these markets in this comment should be arbable, as I believe they count either 4.5 or 5.

Beware of the various other markets, which have criteria requiring it to be specifically named one or the other.

These markets are MAYBE arb, depending on the exact name:

@Joshua But wait, there's more!

@Joshua Thanks for posting all of these. In addition to these 243 markets, I've identified an additional 82 that may be arbable.