This market resolves Yes if OpenAI broadly releases the successor to GPT-4 before June 2024.
Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.
It must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription.
If no such model is released before June 1st (PT), this market resolves No.
For more markets on this subject, see the Dashboard.
/ms/when-will-openai-release-a-more-cap
/Joshua/when-will-openai-broadly-release-gp
Given that GPT-4 was revealed and released the same day, I think we are mostly expecting the same of its successor. But given that DALLE 3 didn't release for 30 days and SORA was revealed a month ago and still hasn't released, I don't think we should take that for granted. So to help in arbitraging the markets about reveal and the markets about release, I've made a new market: