This market resolves Yes if OpenAI broadly releases the successor to GPT-4 before June 2024.
Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.
It must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription.
If no such model is released before June 1st (PT), this market resolves No.
For more markets on this subject, see the Dashboard.
/ms/when-will-openai-release-a-more-cap
/Joshua/when-will-openai-broadly-release-gp
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Kalshi's Market on a GPT-4 successor/GPT-4.5 resolved YES today, counting GPT-4o. I was already leaning towards a YES resolution, and was mainly waiting to see if Kalshi would disagree with me. Mira's market about 4.5 is also counting GPT-4o. Jim's market on if GPT2-Chatbot is GPT-4's successor has resolved NO. Mikhail's Market on "a more capable llm" is still unresolved.
My markets don't have exactly the same criteria as those markets, but this is a tricky situation and I wanted to see how other creator's handled it and hear arguments from traders. At this point, I think I'm confident in resolving all my markets to count GPT-4o as if it were GPT-4.5. I think that this is how OpenAI is presenting 4o, and I think that the improvements to speed, cost, and modality are impressive enough to justify that presentation as the latest and greatest flagship model.
On OpenAI's website, they now list GPT-4 and GPT-4 Turbo together as the "previous set" of models:
I think that it's disappointing that 4o isn't significantly smarter than GPT-4, but my markets never required OpenAI's next model to be significantly smarter. This system seems to be what all the rumors about a multimodal 4.5 model were referring to, and it was those rumors that kicked off my creation of these markets.
OpenAI's presentation of 4o is clearly intended to frame it as a jump like 3 to 3.5 or 3.5 to 4, but they are saving the impact of a numerical name increase for the full jump to GPT 5.
The next version of these markets will be run by the canonical Manifold AI account, and I will not trade in them:
@Joshua Thanks for putting care and consideration into elaborating your reasoning, I wish I did non-5 star reviews more often so I could go out of my way on this one.
Given that GPT-4 was revealed and released the same day, I think we are mostly expecting the same of its successor. But given that DALLE 3 didn't release for 30 days and SORA was revealed a month ago and still hasn't released, I don't think we should take that for granted. So to help in arbitraging the markets about reveal and the markets about release, I've made a new market: