Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?

Resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist or they change numbering model

Resolves YES on release of 4.5 model strictly before a release of a model named gpt 5

Resolves NO on release of gpt 5 which isn't preceded by a release of 4.5. Resolves NO in case of a simultaneous release

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What if GPT-4o is a small model and they just increase the size and call it GPT-4.5.

what's the take on 4o - seems like letter instead of number for midpoint before 5 release


I created a Ṁ400 limit order @30% if you're interested 👋🏼

opened a Ṁ955 NO at 30% order

@Felle Done. Thanks!

bought Ṁ100 NO

The fact that they're rolling out a majorly improved gpt-4 turbo makes 4.5 much less likely imo

bought Ṁ50 NO

Last similar market I saw devolved into whether turbo is a 0.5 version or something different and it got really silly. For that reason I’m out.

bought Ṁ250 YES

Can anyone on the NO side make an argument for keeping this down at 50% in the face of the leaks?

Do you disbelieve the leaks?
Do you think GPT 5 will be released at the same time?

What are we missing on the YES side?

@jgyou basically yes, I disbelieve the leaks. The leakers on this topic don't have a great track record, as most leaks made it seem like release was imminent, but it didn't happen.

Those who want to weight leaks highly also have to contend with some of them being about GPT-5 (I don't expect simultaneous release of GPT-4.5 and GPT-5, I think if a GPT-5 release happens it will mean there will be no GPT-4.5), and one of the most prominent leakers saying "GPT-4.5 is cancelled".

The fact that GPT-3.5 exists doesn't IMHO set a strong precedent that 4.5 will. It's early days in their versioning numbers and I don't think they've settled into a rhythm.

It does seem to be true that a release blog post for "GPT-4.5 Turbo" did exist briefly on OpenAIs website last September when search engine crawlers indexed it. But I don't think that is much evidence for anything - that predates GPT-4 Turbo's release, and it had a nonsensical knowledge cutoff in the future - I think it must have been just a test of some aspect of the blog or something like that.

@jgyou short answer: The leaks are not consistent with what you would expect to be leaking if GPT-Whatever would be announced soon. If they're not more likely under that hypothesis, we don't need to update on them.

@chrisjbillington my personal theory is that gpt-4-turbo used to be called gpt-4.5 earlier in the product cycle. Would explain some leaks from before its release.

What is the threshold of time between releases for considering it a simultaneous release? I'd guess that e.g. 10 seconds would count, but what about e.g. 24 hours?

@12c498e if they're not released in the same post at the same time they aren't simultaneous, I would think

predicts NO

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