Resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist or they change numbering model
Resolves YES on release of 4.5 model strictly before a release of a model named gpt 5
Resolves NO on release of gpt 5 which isn't preceded by a release of 4.5. Resolves NO in case of a simultaneous release
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@jgyou basically yes, I disbelieve the leaks. The leakers on this topic don't have a great track record, as most leaks made it seem like release was imminent, but it didn't happen.
Those who want to weight leaks highly also have to contend with some of them being about GPT-5 (I don't expect simultaneous release of GPT-4.5 and GPT-5, I think if a GPT-5 release happens it will mean there will be no GPT-4.5), and one of the most prominent leakers saying "GPT-4.5 is cancelled".
The fact that GPT-3.5 exists doesn't IMHO set a strong precedent that 4.5 will. It's early days in their versioning numbers and I don't think they've settled into a rhythm.
It does seem to be true that a release blog post for "GPT-4.5 Turbo" did exist briefly on OpenAIs website last September when search engine crawlers indexed it. But I don't think that is much evidence for anything - that predates GPT-4 Turbo's release, and it had a nonsensical knowledge cutoff in the future - I think it must have been just a test of some aspect of the blog or something like that.
@jgyou short answer: The leaks are not consistent with what you would expect to be leaking if GPT-Whatever would be announced soon. If they're not more likely under that hypothesis, we don't need to update on them.
@chrisjbillington my personal theory is that gpt-4-turbo used to be called gpt-4.5 earlier in the product cycle. Would explain some leaks from before its release.
What is the threshold of time between releases for considering it a simultaneous release? I'd guess that e.g. 10 seconds would count, but what about e.g. 24 hours?
@12c498e if they're not released in the same post at the same time they aren't simultaneous, I would think
potentially unreliable source, but: https://x.com/futuristflower/status/1750866988056928390?s=20