Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?
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219
Ṁ100k
2026
14%
chance

Resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist or they change numbering model

Resolves YES on release of 4.5 model strictly before a release of a model named gpt 5

Resolves NO on release of gpt 5 which isn't preceded by a release of 4.5. Resolves NO in case of a simultaneous release

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The last time Jimmy predicted GPT-4.5 he got it totally wrong, but maybe this time… https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1833595024543781088

@majorj

Still no mention of 4.5 anywhere, but the existence GPT-5 is already being leaked

sold Ṁ73 NO

probably won't be called GPT-4.5 but a major new release before GPT-5 is looking more likely

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-races-to-launch-strawberry-reasoning-ai-to-boost-chatbot-business?rc=9mzoog

Do you think Strawberry is GPT Next? It doesn't seem like it, but I'm not sure

GPT Next is probably a stand-in for whatever model they release next.

They reportedly want to release a strawberry-powered model this fall, before they release Orion, which is a big new model. Orion will probably be called GPT-5 and i have no idea what they'll call the strawberry model.

bought Ṁ20 NO

OpenAI Dev Day (three dates in October-November) announcement: "While we know developers are waiting for our next big model, which we shared has begun training earlier this year, these events will focus on advancements in the API and our dev tools"

Doesn't strictly preclude a model dropping before or around the Dev Days.

It doesn't preclude it at all. There are a limited amount of spots available, so they don't want anyone unnecessarily taking up a slot because they were hoping for a product announcement there.

This is however yet another (small) sign that they are planning their next model release to be their "next big model" that they announced earlier this year; which is obviously not going to be called GPT-4.5.

"[...] which is obviously not going to be called GPT-4"

Why is that obvious?

I don't think it's obvious either. In May they said they recently started a frontier training run. Recently could mean with the last few days or weeks, or could mean a month ago or more.

If the model comes out soon and/or if it's not powerful enough, they could call it 4.5.

seems to me like an odd choice to call your next big model, trained on a huge new (prob >100k H100s) supercomputer the unexciting name GPT-4.5. They‘ve been calling it „GPT-NEXT“ in their slides, contrasted with the GPT-3 and GPT-4 era models, so GPT-5 or something else entirely seems like the next step (they count GPT-3.5 as part of the GPT-3 era)

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 40% order

They‘ve shown this slide multiple times now

which suggests that GPT Next will introduce a new „era“

bought Ṁ300 YES

placing a 500 limit order at 50% if you are interested

What if GPT-4o is a small model and they just increase the size and call it GPT-4.5.

what's the take on 4o - seems like letter instead of number for midpoint before 5 release

@chrisjbillington

I created a Ṁ400 limit order @30% if you're interested 👋🏼

opened a Ṁ955 NO at 30% order

@Felle Done. Thanks!

bought Ṁ100 NO

The fact that they're rolling out a majorly improved gpt-4 turbo makes 4.5 much less likely imo

bought Ṁ50 NO

Last similar market I saw devolved into whether turbo is a 0.5 version or something different and it got really silly. For that reason I’m out.

bought Ṁ250 YES

Can anyone on the NO side make an argument for keeping this down at 50% in the face of the leaks?


Do you disbelieve the leaks?
Do you think GPT 5 will be released at the same time?


What are we missing on the YES side?

@jgyou basically yes, I disbelieve the leaks. The leakers on this topic don't have a great track record, as most leaks made it seem like release was imminent, but it didn't happen.

Those who want to weight leaks highly also have to contend with some of them being about GPT-5 (I don't expect simultaneous release of GPT-4.5 and GPT-5, I think if a GPT-5 release happens it will mean there will be no GPT-4.5), and one of the most prominent leakers saying "GPT-4.5 is cancelled".

The fact that GPT-3.5 exists doesn't IMHO set a strong precedent that 4.5 will. It's early days in their versioning numbers and I don't think they've settled into a rhythm.

It does seem to be true that a release blog post for "GPT-4.5 Turbo" did exist briefly on OpenAIs website last September when search engine crawlers indexed it. But I don't think that is much evidence for anything - that predates GPT-4 Turbo's release, and it had a nonsensical knowledge cutoff in the future - I think it must have been just a test of some aspect of the blog or something like that.

@jgyou short answer: The leaks are not consistent with what you would expect to be leaking if GPT-Whatever would be announced soon. If they're not more likely under that hypothesis, we don't need to update on them.

@chrisjbillington my personal theory is that gpt-4-turbo used to be called gpt-4.5 earlier in the product cycle. Would explain some leaks from before its release.