If you search duckduckgo for "https://openai.com/blog/gpt-4-5-turbo/", it seems to show a result! Is this real?
OpenAI announces GPT-4.5 Turbo, a new model that surpasses GPT-4 Turbo in speed, accuracy and scalability. Learn how GPT-4.5 Turbo can generate natural language or code with a 256k context window and a knowledge cutoff of June 2024.
This will, in general, use my (or mods if disputed)'s judgement. But for example, ignoring countervailing concerns most likely:
Resolves YES if OpenAI or sam altman or similar make a statement confirming it, resolves NO if they explicitly deny it
Resolves YES if that doesn't happen and OpenAI releases gpt-4.5 and the blog post appears similar enough to what appeared on duckduckgo that it indicates the leak was real
Resolves NO if gpt-4.5 is released and the blog post is different
Resolves NO if gpt-4.5 isn't released after some (long, close date extended if it's still plausible GPT-4.5 is releasing) period of time
1,000People are also trading
Would this resolve if a model releases with just the name "GPT-4.5" and knowledge cutoff of june 2024 like the duckduckgo result said, but just no 256K context length and no turbo name? It would still count right? since the odds of it being that name with that knowledge cutoff by coincidence would be pretty low right?
@jim why? gpt-4.5 (in the sense of A Thing Called gpt4.5) was not released, and that's the sense relevant for a blogpost with the title "gpt4.5" imo
@jacksonpolack no real reason, it's just obvious it's gonna resolve NO. I resolved my "is gpt2-chatbot based on the gpt-2 architecture?" market NO despite us not having any proof and everyone was happy.
Tried searching both Bing and DuckDuckGo just now. The top hit on both is now https://community.openai.com/t/gpt-4-5-turbo-leaked-release-in-june-2024-discussion/679825
To spare others some time: Allegedly the bing api says it was crawled in 2023, September (before Roon saying there's no gpt-4.5). I've only seen 1 random person reporting this on Twitter, but because anyone could check, it would be weird to lie about this. (https://x.com/xkcd1963/status/1767603185693143450?s=20)
@koadma i got the same result and bought this market to 2%... but low-info betters took over and I"m out of mana
@chrisjbillington I would've just asked "Will GPT 4.5 on release have a 256k context size?", "Will GPT 4.5 on release have a knowledge cutoff any day in June?".
And in fact I did make this after seeing the rumor: