Will it appear that the openai.com GPT-4.5 turbo blogpost that appeared in DuckDuckGo results was real?
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If you search duckduckgo for "https://openai.com/blog/gpt-4-5-turbo/", it seems to show a result! Is this real?

OpenAI announces GPT-4.5 Turbo, a new model that surpasses GPT-4 Turbo in speed, accuracy and scalability. Learn how GPT-4.5 Turbo can generate natural language or code with a 256k context window and a knowledge cutoff of June 2024.

This will, in general, use my (or mods if disputed)'s judgement. But for example, ignoring countervailing concerns most likely:

Resolves YES if OpenAI or sam altman or similar make a statement confirming it, resolves NO if they explicitly deny it

Resolves YES if that doesn't happen and OpenAI releases gpt-4.5 and the blog post appears similar enough to what appeared on duckduckgo that it indicates the leak was real

Resolves NO if gpt-4.5 is released and the blog post is different

Resolves NO if gpt-4.5 isn't released after some (long, close date extended if it's still plausible GPT-4.5 is releasing) period of time

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Tried searching both Bing and DuckDuckGo just now. The top hit on both is now https://community.openai.com/t/gpt-4-5-turbo-leaked-release-in-june-2024-discussion/679825

To spare others some time: Allegedly the bing api says it was crawled in 2023, September (before Roon saying there's no gpt-4.5). I've only seen 1 random person reporting this on Twitter, but because anyone could check, it would be weird to lie about this. (https://x.com/xkcd1963/status/1767603185693143450?s=20)

@koadma i got the same result and bought this market to 2%... but low-info betters took over and I"m out of mana

If the actual blogpost has the same url and contains the text in your description, but with some details changed (eg. the cutoff and the context window), will that count as a YES resolution?

Just confirming, if the page really was up on openai.com¸ that doesn't necessarily count as "real", right? "real" means it actually pertains to a release of GPT-4.5 in some meaningful sense - even if it's a draft and GPT-4.5 release isn't to happen for some time.

@chrisjbillington I would've just asked "Will GPT 4.5 on release have a 256k context size?", "Will GPT 4.5 on release have a knowledge cutoff any day in June?".

And in fact I did make this after seeing the rumor:

/MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt45

bought Ṁ1 YES

Seems real to me! But I still have no idea when it'll actually come out.

@Joshua who will win? Joshua, Jackson Polock, ... , and Mira, or Jim?