When will OpenAI broadly release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5?
March 1-15
March 16-31
April 1-15
April 16-30
May 1-15
May 16-31
June 1-15
June 16-30
July 1-15
July 16-31
August 1-15
August 16-31
September 1-15
September 16-30
October 1-15
October 16-31

Resolves to the time period in which this happens, dates inclusive.

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.

It must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription.

I will continue adding later time periods as necessary, which will split from "Other". So bet on "Other" if you believe the release will be later than any current options.

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I think the March markets should be resolved?

@AmadeoBordiga For linked multiple choice markets, we can't resolve options to NO early, yet.

@Bayesian Ah, I see — thanks!

@Joshua does it count as OpenAI broadly releasing a model if the model is only available via Microsoft copilot, and not via openAI's website or API?

Most would not consider the GPT-4 that was available early via Bing chat to be the "canonical version", and it's a meaningfully different model (as in - its responses are obviously different). Though it's possible that the GPT-5 available via Microsoft copilot (if that happens) might be actually the same model this time, as the one available via OpenAI themselves.

@chrisjbillington Open to suggestions here but I think it has to be officially announced and available to the general public (even if they have to pay for it).

We know they secretly test models before release, this market is about the proper release.


Officially announced by OpenAI?

An announcement from Microsoft only wouldn't count?

What if there are comments from OpenAI acknowledging that Microsoft is making the same model available as will later be available from OpenAI?

A bright line might be to say OpenAI only, another bright line might be that there must be a release announcement from OpenAI, even if access is via Microsoft. You could say that an announcement from Microsoft that appears sanctioned by OpenAI would count, but that's getting blurrier.

It's in my interests to argue "OpenAI only", but it is also the clearest line.

@chrisjbillington Well I said "next major, canonical form of GPT" so I don't think it's canonical unless they're calling it it their next flagship LLM and OAI is providing access to it themselves. Does that make sense to everyone though?

If you add up the current market odds for all time periods before June, it looks like that's about the 50/50 line. Therefore:

bought Ṁ10 July 1-15 YES

Things are getting interesting, see the comments from the other market and particularly:


bought Ṁ10 July 1-15 YES

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