Will I be convinced that a significant number of "GPT-Spam" comment writers were assigned Manifold as homework?
resolved Oct 30

See this question for more context

When asked, some of these users have said they were assigned homework in the form of using Manifold and writing these comments. Will I be convinced that this is true for at least some significant number of them within 30 days?

Somewhat vibes-based, with a "preponderance of evidence" threshold. I will not trade on this market.

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Made a sequel market, since we're still getting a bunch of GPT-spam. I think it's all actual GPT spam now and not students, but in case it's not anyone can make some mana by reporting so!

bought Ṁ1,500 of YES

Not including his email, but the domain was an appropriate .edu matching a university that matched up with the location of all the accounts.

NO WAY 😂😂😂

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@SirSalty fyi I do think there were two separate groups of people.

The very first wave that happened all had the same ip address which was in a different, more sus, country. And all had the exact same pattern.

This second wave linking to this professor all had different ip addresses and some had comments that were not bot-like in addition to their "essay comments"

I think this is sufficient for me, going to resolve yes if there are no objections.

predicted NO

@SirSalty honestly I think we should encourage that! Just tell him the comments were overly formulaic 😂

@EvanDaniel agreed, the students can stay 😁

bought Ṁ400 of NO

there's just no way this is the explanation, i refuse to believe it

predicted YES

my ass is NOT passing econ

No, Matthew, we do not believe that you will be convinced that a significant number of comments are assigned as Manifold homework, based on the significant evidence and report from the news, it is clear that GPT-Spam content will be more common on Manifold. The common of AI generated posts on Reddit evidently indicates the prevalence of GPT-Spam comments on internet. Moreover, this trend is continue to grow over time based on the available data.
Additionally, the information reveals that a botnet spread ChatGPT spam and used it to attack several sub reddits. The moderators had problems banning all the accounts involved. Reddit transparency report shows huge problem with spam and fake accounts advertising products. With a significant number of GPT-Spam content on internet, it is likely that the majority of the comments are GPT-Spam.

Source https://www.vice.com/en/article/jg5qy8/reddit-moderators-brace-for-a-chatgpt-spam-apocalypse

bought Ṁ0 of YES
bought Ṁ60 of NO

@adk what is this supposed to mean? I'm confused.

predicted YES

@firstuserhere I just wanted to say that I had placed a bunch of limit orders on YES in the hope that someone might want to fill them (maybe this wasn’t the best way to do so?)

predicted NO

@adk I wish it was easier to see limit orders but sharing a screenshot seems like a good way to advertise.

predicted NO

@adk Ah i see. I thought you meant that there are hardly any limit orders for NO lol. My approach is leaving a comment along the lines of "I've left a bunch of limit orders at xyz price, if someone wants to fill them"

it’s true my uncle works at harvard and he says all the professors are doing it

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Does anyone have screenshots/examples of markets where GPT-like accounts have claimed they’re students? I have a hard time believing that someone would assign posting spam comments on Manifold (a number of assignments, or a number of teachers, by the amount of time this has been going on.) And @Joshua‘s cheating hypothesis requires a rather large percent of a class to be cheating in the same way and the instructor not noticing or a very large class/many instructors and just a few students cheating, which implies there should be a proportionally larger number of non-cheating student comments, which there there isn’t any evidence for.

predicted YES

they specifically claimed it in dms

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack oh, interesting. Do you know how many GPT accounts have claimed it?

bought Ṁ7 of YES

I think you're vastly underestimating student's willingness to cheat on this type of assignment and/or professors' abilities to do anything about it.

predicted NO

@Anthem Looking through the evidence, I think that this market and this market definitely have actual students in them and undergrad-ish style is being mistaken for GPT prose. In those markets, there are plenty of slight typos, capitalization errors, links, and other things ChatGPT wouldn’t say.

sold Ṁ47 of NO

@adk Actually, selling because there are clearly a large number of students and I don’t how this resolves if the students aren’t generating answers. Does “GPT-spam” in the title only refer to comments that are actually written by ChatGPT or does it refer to everything that’s been labeled as “GPT-spam” regardless of whether it was written by a human or not? @Joshua?

Yeah if they're students that are writing homework that looks like ChatGPT but turns out to not be ChatGPT, that still resolves this question yes.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Joshua on the one hand, undergrads often do write like chatgpt naturally. otoh, this is a really silly situation