Will Manifold deal with weird single-bet generic-comment spam accounts by 2024?
12
385
αΉ€270
resolved Oct 31
Resolved
YES

You know what I'm talking about. They'll post some not-necessarily-incorrect but generic comment, possibly from an LLM, on a popular question like AI movie or sudoku, with a tiny bet. That's their only bet. It's always a new account. Is it for market manipulation? Cashing in on the free new account mana? Is it easy to stop? Let's find out!

Updated language to be a little less judgemental since it may be something homework related??

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bought αΉ€50 of YES

What does "deal with" mean? If this activity is stopped for whatever reason, does this count as dealt with?

@roma only if manifold has taken some action that we know of.

sold αΉ€97 of YES

@Tomoffer Hm. They contacted a teacher who apparently gave assignments to students to do this. Also, from the content of the email it seems they've banned some accounts. I think this counts as action, but not sure.

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-i-be-convinced-that-a-signific#vurW9QMKUvLjp4bS6k2A

@roma agreed, very interesting outcome! Sounds like bans were handed out to users from at least two distinct groups - one definite spam, the other students. Some student bans may be reversed, which I think is good, they can stay!

predicted NO

@Tomoffer β€œonly if manifold has taken some action that we know of.” Shoot, I assumed that β€œdeal with” meant solve! And I’m a native English speaker! πŸ˜„

@oh well as far as I understand it, there is a subset of the comments identified in this question which were genuine spam which have been blocked(/solved/"dealt with"), and another which have effectively been identified as genuine. Some of these were blocked initially, but may be unblocked since they are not spam. I suspect manifold would consider this subset also to have been "dealt with"/solved in that positive action and correspondence with the origin of the accounts took place, and decisions made accordingly.

predicted NO

@Tomoffer Oh I thought we’d have to see proof that these accounts haven’t cropped I’m up for a while to resolve yes.

I don’t think it’s only the work of one person because some of them were in different languages.

@ShadowyZephyr hello @SirSalty, please could I ask you to elaborate on the action taken by manifold on these comments (see also the link above) and whether you consider the matter closed? Were some accounts permanently banned?

I suspect there's an issue here around what is and isn't spam, apologies for any bad feelings on this and any poor question definition. I didn't take a position in the market, if that helps...

@Tomoffer eh the wording is vague and we did "do something". Whether it sill work or not tho depends haha. If the professor was telling the truth then it should. We did ban some of the accounts and gave tw users perms to hide comments. I think we did enough for this to resolve yes.

@SirSalty Thanks for the input, appreciate my wording was vague!

I found one advertising a printing service in Vietnamese. 1 bet and 1 market. Very weird.

I wonder if this is related to the spam comments that seem innocuous but include an unrelated link at the end essay writing service

@CollectedOverSpread outstanding work. Needs ads removing!

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