Specifically that this platform (as in market creators & mods) doesn’t sufficiently care about truth, i .e. how to sufficiently incentivize or guarantee a baseline quality of resolution criteria and sensible market resolutions.

I've had a lot of discouraging experiences where markets got resolved (in my eyes) falsely. Sometimes mods corrected this. But most often, there was no recourse for people betting on those markets (most recently this market: https://manifold.markets/FranekZak/what-will-apple-launch-on-february).

This has happened to markets I have bet on myself, but I have seen it happen even more often to markets where I wasn't a bettor. (I’ve tried to argue and make mods pay attention to such markets when I wasn't a bettor as actively as with markets where I was a bettor.)

Of course it's impossible to be a perfect platform, but Manifold specifically seems to attract lots of people creating markets without sufficient knowledge of (or care for) the topic. Said more directly: There are lots of markets where creators have seemingly put 1-5 minutes of effort into the market, when 5-15+ minutes would have been the minimum amount for the platform to work well.

It happens often that somebody just didn't specify important edge cases, or wrote something wrong, or doesn't understand the ground truth (in a relevant way) the market is supposed to track. The platform has very limited (often arguably non-existent) ways of guaranteeing a quality baseline of the markets it hosts and promotes.

Coupled with unclear, delayed, (or non-existence) of moderator responsiveness, there are often no options of recourse for bettors, leading to a muddled value of the currency we use to track prediction accuracy (Mana).

In general, I think markets where creators didn’t do a good job of specifying criteria (so that a substantial part of the bettors were confused) should way more often be resolved N/A than they currently are.

Having long thought (and critiqued) how the informational problem of unknown market quality is a major problem, I have waited to see how the platform hopes to work on improving this. It has been and still is very unclear if there are efforts to improve this, or if there even is awareness that this is such a major shortcoming of Manifold as a platform.

For me, right now, it's big enough of a problem that I don't think the tradeoff of time spent vs. value gotten out of the platform is worth it. I'm not sure enough that Mana is a good enough indicator of “predictive success“ vs. just “being able to play the social game“, i.e. knowing market creators, knowing mods, etc. (I expect this statement would seem mostly sulky if coming from someone with negative Mana balance, but mine is looking pretty ok, so I feel fine about saying this.)

I expect that, if nothing changes, I will write about how I think Manifold is struggling with this on social media, and leave the platform.

This market ends at the end of March, and I will resolve it “YES“ if I have the strong intention of not coming back to Manifold after that date. Otherwise I will resolve “NO“.