If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform?
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27
1.5k
2026
13%
chance

More and more I hear talk that some of the magic (and risk) of Manifold is that it's secretly a social media site, not just a trading and forecasting aggregator. Will that sense continue to develop as the site matures, will the team lean into the concept, or will there be a pivot away? This is an attempt at measuring that.

Can resolve at any point in 2025, if there is a roughly representative survey of Manifold users that includes a question in the spirit of "Is Manifold your primary social media platform?" or combinations such as "Is Manifold a social media site?" and "How does it rank among your most frequented sites?" with correlatable data.

Resolves YES if 50% or more of such surveyed users agree that it's a social media site and it's their primary/ dominant one. Resolves NO if less than a majority of surveyed users hold that view. Resolves N/A if no qualifying survey is performed by the end of 2025.

Nitpick: can resolve as late as January 2026 if a qualifying survey is performed in late 2025 but the data takes some time to come out, but will resolve N/A regardless if the data is not presented before February 2026.

"Roughly representative survey": cannot be simply a straw poll of powerusers, such as members of the discord, badged users, attendees at a conference, or such. It must be easily accessible from the Manifold site, app, in email blasts, or other such places where any given user has a chance to come across it. However, it doesn't need to be rigorously or statistically presented evenly such as by random non-volunteer sampling.

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I recommend creating this survey and related markets for 2023 as well, i think for a lot of people, it already is.

@firstuserhere I probably won't run another survey in 2023, and neglected to add Manifold in the list of social media sites on the one I did run, but it's a good point!

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