******FINAL UPDATE 10/7:  We can now finally resolve this!  Yougov released a poll today showing Vance winning the debate 41-32.   That is an extremely strong win and meets multiple criteria I set forth.   We now have 4 credible polls all in the same direction for Vance (+1, +2, +2 and +9), showing a clear pattern for Vance.  This last poll was even outside the margin of error of 2.9. Thank you for your patience on this one.  The early data was very, very close and inconclusive (in my best judgment based on my criteria).  We have now seen a strong pattern emerge with the 4 released polls and a decisive win with this last poll.  It was not easy to manage this one, but I'm glad we were able to clearly get there.   Thank you to all those who participated and congrats to those who scored big with picking Vance when he was an underdog.  

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-trump-harris-race-tightens-after-vance-debate-win-120026568.html

*****Update 10/4. New poll released that meets the criteria shows Vance 48 to Walz 46. Wow, this is as close as it comes. Per my last update, we are still in "tie" territory. If no more polls released, this will be a tie (and be voided). If we see one more credible poll (e.g. that meets the criteria) that has Vance winnning by any amount, this will resolve Vance. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/10/4/harris-leads-trump-by-3-improves-standing-on-economic-issues

**UPDATE 10/2: The two post-debate snap polls were released, and it is incredibly close. CBS/Yougov has it 42 Vance, 41 Walz and 17 tie with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 pts. CNN has it 51 Vance, 49 Walz and a margin of error of +/- 5.3 pts. These are both well within the margin of error. Given that both are very close and within the margin of error, if these are the only polls, I would currently resolve this as a tie and void the market (per my original resolution criteria). However, I am going to keep this open for 10 more days to see if any traditional polling come out on this question in the next week or so (these polls can take up to a week or more to be conducted). If we see 1 more poll comes out and it is still just as close (2 points or under for Vance, a tie or Walz win), then I am going to declare it a tie and void the market. If we see 1 more poll indicating a Vance win strongly (3 points or more) or multiple polls all in the same direction as the snap polls (+1 or more for Vance), then I will call it for Vance, as we will have seen a pattern in one direction (per my resolution criteria of showing a pattern even if within the MOE). Please let me know if you have any questions.

https://x.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1841320255810847104?s=19

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/02/politics/election-poll-walz-vance-debate/index.html

Who will the polls say won the debate between the two? Will resolve based on credible polls post-debate regarding this specific question. Credible polls are those using a large sample, scientifically valid process and have a pollster rating of 1.9 or higher on 538 (which is about 100+ pollsters). Examples include CNN/ssrs and you gov snap polls and Ipsos poll, which all did polls regarding the winner of the presidential debate and meet the criteria. I plan to resolve within 48 hours if all the snap polls show a clear winner. If the winner is less clear, I will wait 10 days to see if any additional polling is released to make it decisive. I will not include any party or SUPER PAC pollsters, unless they have a rating of 1.9 or higher on 538. If 1) there is a truly split polling result among credible polls (i.e. two polls show Vance won and two show Walz won) or 2) all poll results are within the polls stated margin of error and don't show a clear pattern (e.g. Walz +2, Vance +3, Walz +1), I will declare it a tie and void as N/A. For example, the Margin of error for the CNN/ssrs poll was +/- 5.3 points. If the polls are within the margin of error but all point in same direction (e.g. 3 polls with Vance +4), I will consider that a Vance victory.

If there is no debate or there is only 1 or no polls that meet the criteria, I will resolve n/a and return the funds. If there is more than one VP debate, this will resolve based on the FIRST one.

NOTE: Edited 10/1 to be clearer on resolution criteria.