Will Mariah’s All I Want for Christmas Is You Reach #1 on Billboard in November 2024?
21
𝕊769
resolved Dec 2
Resolved
NO
The creator of this market has given incorrect context, which could've come from a misinterpretation of the information presented in the chart. The dates listed in the chart are debut dates, and the numbers on the right are peak chart positions, not the position the song was at during the debut date. When you visit the billboard archives cited by Wikipedia, they show the actual date at which the song reached the peak chart position listed, and so far this has only occurred in December and January. The statement "Since 2019, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You has reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the month of November every year" is false. The song has never reached #1 in November before.

Billboard’s Hot 100 edition are weekly leaderboards with a Saturday date, and there are 2 Saturday’s at the end of this month: the 23rd and the 30th.

Since 2019, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You has reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the month of November every year (seen below and here). Will she do it again this year?

Can Mariah Carey get her 6th consecutive #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before December?

Resolves NO on December 1st.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I've resolved this no. I think it could have been resolved N/A if Matty wanted to but he seems to be temporarily inactive.

I'm sure Matty would be happy to refund the small amount of mana that was lost/I can too. I'm not gonna calculate it like I did with the sweepcash but if you feel like you bet YES and were misled and would like a refund please reply with a comment how much you lost.

@SirSalty I would like refund please. All my YES shares were bought before the clarification and I have a 1,837 mana loss.

@mattyb @mods This can be resolved NO, thank you!

@10thOfficial I forwarded the status to @SirSalty -- it looks like it should resolve No but I see comments from Manifold down below about some kind of potential exception going on in this market.

@mods @mattyb Resolve?

Have sent sweepcash to everyone previously mentioned. Please let me know if you think we sent the wrong amount. I didn't bother taking out the few 0.X sweepcash that a couple of people realised early.

@Manifold @SirSalty Resolve No

Oh, I won't ask for much this Christmas

I won't even wish for snow

I'm just gonna keep on watching

Observing this market's row

I will type comments and send it

To Manifold for reimbursement

Just to be clear, we will send sweepcash to the following users who bought YES once this market resolves such that they are made whole relative to their cost basis. This way none of you will lose any sweepcash over this market.

@10thOfficial @dominic @bubbleston @LostFutures @EmilAbraham @GammaLaser @beevoid @PH @CHRISRIVERA

If you've already exited and managed to recover some of your initial cost basis, we will send the remaining difference.

This is a one-off event. If something similar occurs in the future in a different market we may not necessarily be able to compensate everyone. Trade at your own risk and research the question and description before making any trades.

@Manifold Don't forget about @GleamingRhino!

@bagelfan Correct! Thought I had already tagged them.

@Manifold I think @beevoid is owed an apology and an unban.

@Predictor I disagree.

@bagelfan Yea, ok. Have you ever had your rights trampled or been conned? How did you feel? The guy was clearly very upset and distraught. Didn't help that there was no response to his initial complaints from the site admin. There needs to be 2 people handling this so there is cover when 1 is out of office.

@Predictor Does that give him the right to post nearly 30 spam comments on random markets, falsely accusing manifold, mods, and mattyb of stealing sweepcash and mana, and advertising Kalshi?

Note that Manifold is being very generous here by making Yes holders whole.

@bagelfan I suppose not, but he does deserve forgiveness and a second chance. I understand how emotional it can be to go through what he went through.

@Predictor beevoid was already given that second chance? they were told "stop spamming advertisements" (that is obviously against the rules), and then the next day they started doing it again. you can go pretty far with whining/complaining on manifold tbh and there won't be any action about it but banning people who spam ads after being told to stop is like, as simple as any case can be.

it is annoying to have people spam ads on your market and i would very much like the mods to ban the users who choose to do that.

@Ziddletwix I know and I get it. I also know what it's like not to have a voice to state your case. He was wronged here and felt some type of way without any support from anyone. I would call this episode of his all one incident and offer up a second chance for redemption. That's all. Just looking out for the little guy on this site, I know how it goes sometimes.

@Manifold ty kings

@Manifold This is a fair solution and well handled by @Manifold. It was an honest mistake by Matt and a lesson to us as traders to have a more critical eye.

@mods fix this bullshit now

@beevoid What a shit show. Can you tell me more about Kalshi? Do they typically have non-misleading descriptions?

This is a tangent, but Kalshi and every other prediction platform has the same problems with accidentally misleading or ambiguous questions (less often, though). E.g. they resolved a market on whether Biden would enact forgiveness for student loans NO, because of a technicality (it wasn't by executive action or legislation) - https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsdebt/student-debt-forgiveness-via-bill-or-executive-order-please-see-rules (The clarification was added to the title later)

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