Resolves YES if an offer to buy Parler led by Kanye West (a.k.a. "Ye") succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Kanye West provide a majority of the capital.)
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This is currently trading below https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-kanye-west-buy-parler-by-june, which seems like it should be impossible.
@SonataGreen This closes Dec 31 2022, that closes June 1 2023 -- this should be lower than that.
@belikewater Agreed, that's what I thought too, so I was confused by their statement that they expect to close in Q4
@jack It's possible that the deal is further along already than either of us realize. My impression is that... Ye... got irritated with twitter and impulsively decided to buy Parler after getting locked out of twitter a week ago, but maybe not. Perhaps people at Parler might also be highly motivated to sell because it might not be making much money. But who knows.
What's the definition of "offer succeeds"? Signing an M&A agreement? Closing the agreement?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/17/tech/kanye-west-ye-parler/index.html
Parler’s parent company announced the deal on Monday morning
Exact terms of the Parler deal weren’t disclosed, though Parler said it must still enter into a definitive agreement with West and expects to close in the fourth quarter.
