Will Kanye West buy Parler by June 2023?

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resolved Jul 1

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Resolves YES if an offer to buy Parler led by Kanye West (a.k.a. "Ye") succeeds by June 2023. (It is not necessary that Kanye West provide a majority of the capital.)

This is a parallel market to an existing one asking whether the transaction will be consummated by year-end. I'm curious to what extent the probability is driven down by the possibility of a slight transaction delay pushing past year-end.

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predictedYES

why did i buy so much yes... holding regardless

This is currently trading above https://manifold.markets/JoeBrucker/will-kanye-west-buy-parler-by-end-o, which seems like it should be impossible.

I don't get it - why the distrust in deal consummation? 60-70% seems to make sense post-announcement with a small deal like this.

@CarsonGale I shorted the other market and I would have shorted this one too at that price if I’d known about it. My logic was basically that Ye is incredibly volatile and it’s easy for him to blow up plans. I saw buying Parler as a move towards volatility cycle for him.