Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran meet in person anywhere at any point in 2026 (on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Qualifying Meeting: The meeting must be in-person and face-to-face. Bilateral virtual meetings, phone calls, or video conferences do not qualify. Verification: The meeting must be confirmed by official state channels (such as the White House or the Iranian government) or reported by credible, mainstream international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg). Supreme Leader: the current leader is Mojtaba Khamenei, but whoever occupies the position at the time of a meeting qualifies.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (33 traders, as of Jun 19, 2026).

Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran meet in person anywhere at any point in 2026 (on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Qualifying Meeting: The meeting must be in-person and face-to-face. Bilateral virtual meetings, phone calls, or video conferences do not qualify.
Verification: The meeting must be confirmed by official state channels (such as the White House or the Iranian government) or reported by credible, mainstream international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg).
Supreme Leader: the current leader is Mojtaba Khamenei, but whoever occupies the position at the time of a meeting qualifies.

Resolution criteria

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