MANIFOLD
Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
3
Ṁ1kṀ730
2029
25%
chance

At war includes:

  • US troops on the ground in Iran

  • Ongoing strikes by either side

  • Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area

  • Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone

This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.

Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, relevant Wikipedia articles, and official government statements.

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