Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
3
Ṁ1kṀ7302029
25%
chance
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At war includes:
US troops on the ground in Iran
Ongoing strikes by either side
Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, relevant Wikipedia articles, and official government statements.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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