Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States uses nuclear weapons against Iran at any point during the ongoing conflict that began on February 28, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or credible international sources confirming nuclear weapon deployment or detonation on Iranian territory or Iranian military assets. The market resolves NO if the conflict concludes without nuclear weapon use.

Background

Following the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and less than a year after Israeli and U.S. forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, the Trump administration has been attempting to persuade Iran to permanently abandon uranium enrichment or face further military action. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The strikes killed Khamenei and prompted Iranian counterstrikes against Israel and U.S. military bases, occurring two days after U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva for what mediators described as productive negotiations on a nuclear deal.

Trump has been consistent for decades that Iran will never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. According to the Nuclear Posture Review, the United States reserves the right to use its nuclear arsenal in "extreme circumstances" to protect the vital interests of the country and its allies. U.S. ground-capable forces are now arriving in the Middle East as the conflict intensifies, indicating that the United States is preparing for the possibility of escalation.

Considerations

The IAEA Director-General stated in March 2026 that "we don't see a structured program to manufacture nuclear weapons" in Iran. The IAEA had not seen any indication that Iran was currently working to develop a nuclear weapon, with the agency's director-general stating "on the contrary, I see, today, a willingness on both sides to reach an agreement." The IAEA director noted that no conventional war has the capability to totally destroy Iran's nuclear program "unless it was nuclear war and you go for destruction unfathomable, which we hope will never be the case."

This description was generated by AI.