Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if President Donald Trump visits Iran at any point during 2026. A visit is defined as Trump's physical presence in Iranian territory. The resolution will be confirmed through official White House statements, credible news reporting from major international news outlets, or official Iranian government announcements. The market resolves NO if Trump does not visit Iran by December 31, 2026.

Background

Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials as of January 13, 2026, amid ongoing protests in Iran. Iran begins 2026 with extensive protests sparked by its weak economy, with more than 600 protests across all of Iran's 31 provinces, with 1,850 of the dead being protesters. Trump increasingly believes he must take decisive action against the regime amid a violent and deadly crackdown on protesters, and has repeatedly been threatening military action. The State Department issued an alert saying US citizens should "leave Iran now" amid the rising tensions.

Considerations

A presidential visit to Iran would be unprecedented in recent decades and would require a dramatic shift in current US-Iran relations. Given the current escalatory rhetoric and military posturing, any visit would likely only occur if there is a significant de-escalation or fundamental change in the political situation in Iran during 2026.