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Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
121
Ṁ5.1kṀ16k
2027
46%
chance

"invade" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran.

By themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.

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The amount of personnel required to capture and maintain occupied control of the Strait of Hormuz is astronomical. That being said, this is political theater, and I don't have faith that the decision makers are being fully rational.

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