Will ULA's Vulcan rocket launch more often than SpaceX's Starship in 2024?
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Plus
18
Ṁ8169
Dec 31
2%
chance

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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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bought Ṁ1 YES

Same market for next year

filled a Ṁ200 NO at 15% order

How is this going to resolve considering it's likely going to be the same number of launches? I am assuming no, bcoz the question explicitly states 'more than'

@notarealuser Correct, same number of launches resolves as No

Vulcan 2 done and 2 National security payloads planned "before end of the year"
but possible solid rocket booster issue on the second launch today.
https://spacenews.com/vulcan-competes-second-flight-despite-srb-anomaly/
"That certification process, if all goes well, could be completed in weeks, although the anomaly with the solid rocket booster could delay that."


Starship 2 done 60 day consultation period re sonic booms larger area so next flight maybe late Nov.

Does 13% chance seem right? Guess it depends how serious you think the SRB issue is likely to be.

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