How much will the VR market grow as a result of Apple Vision Pro

1.4kṀ3878

2034

0x - 1x (shrink or no change)

17%

1x - 1.3x

22%

1.3x - 1.7x

22%

1.7x - 2.2x

2.2x-3x

3x-5x

5x-8x

8x-12x

12x-16x

16x-50x

10%

>50x

Question resolves after the thrid major iteration of the Apple Vision Pro has been avaliable to purchase in the United States for one month (eg iPhone 4, Apple Watch Series 3). Resolution criteria will be independent market analytics such as https://www.statista.com/statistics/591181/global-augmented-virtual-reality-market-size/.

Benchmark will be relative to the market size in the last year before Apple Vision Pro was released. Resolves as N/A if Apple Vision Pro is cancled before release, and immediately resolves to the current value if Apple Vision Pro is cancled after release but before three major iterations.

Technology

Apple Vision Pro

Virtual Reality

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sold Ṁ253 NO

Since I’m now working at Apple, I’m closing all my related market positions to not leak any insider bits.

reposted

any thoughts about this market since apple vision pro got released?

What if they discontinue Apple Vision Pro before version 3? does it resolve as whatever market change occured in 2034, or something else

@TheBayesian good question. I'm leaning towards resolving based on market change at the point its discontinued, since that fits with "as a result of Apple Vision Pro". Do you feel that resolution criteria would be in-line with the spirit of the question?

@spider That works

To clarify, it sounds like a comparison of the VR market's size between what is likely to be 2023 and what could be for example 2029?

@cloudprism Based on prior apple products, I would expect the time to three revisions to be much shorter. But yes, in principle, that is what this is judging.