Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2028?
226
33k
2029
15%
chance

According to Forbes or a similar list.

This is not adjusted for inflation; they must be a trillionaire as denominated in dollars of that time. (USD)

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The richest man in the world right now is Elon Musk with a fortune of 227.1 billion. His wealth is mainly contributed by holding shares in Tesla Inc. For him to have 1 trillion in 2028 he would need to increase his value by 400% over a 5-year period, equating to a sustained growth rate of 34.5% per year which seems impossible to accomplish.

Reference:

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#57946d4e3d78

@DequanGao I would take the bet that Elon himself is a trillionaire by 2028. Don't think self-driving is actually fully priced in yet. Let alone humanoid robotics.

predicts NO

Finally some movement in this market lol, this should be at <20%

40% seems too high for this. 5 years ago the richest person had $110 billion, today they have $230 billion, that's a 2x jump and we would need a 4x jump. I can't find any examples of a 4x jump in the net worth of the world's richest person over a 5 year period in the last 30 years, except for 1994-1999 (22 billion -> 90 billion). I guess the most likely way for this to happen is Tesla grows to have a 3 trillion market cap, same size as Apple currently?

predicts NO

@dominic I think the more important context is that Bill Gates' net worth at the peak of the dotcom bubble was already near $100 billion. So basically ever since the tech boom the net worth of the richest person hasn't outpaced inflation

predicts NO

@n1psey If you start counting from there, sure (although I think it maybe still has outpaced inflation?) But if you start counting from eg 2003, it's outpaced inflation significantly.

If Bitcoin goes to $900k, does Satoshi count with his supposed 1.1m BTC stash?

@TomFinnie If they're listed as a trillionare by Forbes or a similar authority, yes.

Related market on the AI generated wealth

lmao what's with the AI generated picture

Yes, but it will be an AI model :)

Impossible. The only trillionaire the world could have had is Bill Gates. And I don't see any company that is so terrific and one person has such high ownership (like Gates that had 44% of Microsoft at IPO) that can mint a trillionaire

What does trillionaire mean? Net Liquidation Value? Margin? Mark-to-market value of assets?

@Mira As reported by Forbes or a similar site.

Will there be a trillionare by the end of 2028?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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