Who will be the first trillionaire? | Manifold

Who will be the first trillionaire?

97

3.7kṀ16k

Jan 1

51%

Elon Musk

32%

Other

4%

Larry Ellison

4%

Jeff Bezos

3%

Sam Altman

1.9%

Bernard Arnault

Heads of state/inherited wealth are not included.

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Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

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Will the first trillionaire be crowned by the end of the decade?

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Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will there be a trillionaire this decade?

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Heads of state/inherited wealth are not included.

You should give a list of resolution sources, since including sovereign wealth, stock market fluctuations, property self-valuations etc. make this very chaotic.

Are we discounting heads of state/inherited wealth?

Interesting discussion (2021!)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-sam-altman.html

What will you do if there's no trillionaire by 2026?

Do I misunderstand the question? It seems obvious that it's unlikely to be any of the named ones, right?

@manyu why? there's long been speculation that Bezos would become the first trillionaire

I assume we are talking US dollar?

@TeryakiBois yes

People are also trading

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

+11% 1d67% chance

When will there be the world‘s first trillionaire?

Who will be the first officially recognized USD trillionaire?

Will the first trillionaire be crowned by the end of the decade?

Will anyone become a trillionaire before 2030?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will there be a trillionaire this decade?

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

Will the world see a trillionaire before the year 2035?

World's first trillionaire named Time Person of the Year within two years?

Related questions

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

When will there be the world‘s first trillionaire?

Who will be the first officially recognized USD trillionaire?

Will the first trillionaire be crowned by the end of the decade?

Will anyone become a trillionaire before 2030?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will there be a trillionaire this decade?

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

Will the world see a trillionaire before the year 2035?

World's first trillionaire named Time Person of the Year within two years?

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