Who will be the first trillionaire?
94
3.7kṀ16k2026
48%
Elon Musk
32%
5%
Jeff Bezos
4%
Larry Ellison
4%
Sam Altman
3%
Bernard Arnault
1.1%
Michael Saylor
1%
Jensen Huang
Heads of state/inherited wealth are not included.
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You should give a list of resolution sources, since including sovereign wealth, stock market fluctuations, property self-valuations etc. make this very chaotic.
Interesting discussion (2021!)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-sam-altman.html
Do I misunderstand the question? It seems obvious that it's unlikely to be any of the named ones, right?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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