Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
Effective AltruismNathan's DashboardEA Index
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As far as I know, there currently exist two billionaires who support Effective Altruism organizations (Dustin Moskovitz and Sam Bankman-Fried). Will there be any new EA billionaire funders in the next 5 years? Jun 23, 5:20pm: This question resolves positively only if there is no ambiguity, in that the said billionaire is clearly past the billion mark, and is openly supporting and donating to EA causes. Jun 25, 12:49pm: New, as in which don't exist right now! If I'm unaware of their existence, but I later know they were pro-EA billionaires in 2022, I will not resolve positively! Supposedly there are 4 billionaire funders now? Well, this question is about the fifth one!
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Are you counting Jaan Tallinn who is possibly a billionaire? I'm not sure of any reliable accounting of his net worth.

What Melanie Perkins who's net worth is in Canva which isn't yet public?

Do you count charities like Give Directly as an "Effective Altruism organization"? It is clearly an EA causes, but it isn't like, staffed by EAs that I know of, or recommended by GiveWell. Do you mean "explicitly EA branded" or "aligned with some EA priorities"?

Explicitly EA branded.

I don’t think Jaan Tallinn would count, though I’m open to hearing arguments otherwise.

I’m not familiar with Melanie Perkins, but if she explicitly considers herself EA and has an estimated billion+ net worth by 2027, this question will resolve Yes, unless this contradicts a previous statement I’ve made on this market so far.

I will count GiveDirectly as an EA organization, yes.

Given that I didn’t create this market very carefully in order to avoid any ambiguity, if there is any by resolution date, I will ask mods to resolve NA and apologize to any person who bet on this market.

I don't see any comments here which would explain why this number is at 86%, which seems surprisingly high to me. I wonder how many people have updated, given that there are now just 4 years left?

predicts YES

@Jide IPO window has been closed. is now opening

The tally so far: negative one.

predicts NO

@MichaelWheatley Likely negative two, since Gary Wang was also an FTX billionaire.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ze2Je5GCLBDj3nDzK/how-many-ea-billionaires-five-years-from-now

According to this post https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cfdnJ3sDbCSkShiSZ/ea-and-the-current-funding-situation , there are at least 4 billionaire funders: Dustin Moskovitz, SBF, Gary Wang and "At least one person earning to give (and not related to FTX) has a net worth of over a billion" (not considering Dustin Moskovitz wife, Cari Tuna). Does this resolve the question?
Resolution criteria could benefit from a clearer-cut definition of what counts as support. Eg, does Bill Gates count because he founded a large philanthropic organization which cares about effectiveness (but doesn't use the EA brand name and has some philosophical differences)? (I can also think of some additional people besides the two you named who seem like they would count already, with most of the uncertainty about whether they're over the billion-dollar mark.)
@JamesBabcock Yeah, that's a great point, thanks! I don't want to be too specific, because I think that one of the major advantages of Manifold (over Metaculus for instance) is that it takes into account the subjective impression of the market creator. I want to know whether I'll have the impression that there clearly is a new EA billionaire, and even though there might exist some clear-cut resolution criterion that works as a great proxy for that, I can't currently think of one. If you can think of a precise resolution criterion that works as a very good proxy of what I'm looking for in this question, I'll add it and tip you M$105 for it. Bill Gates doesn't count, except if he adopts the EA branding in the next few years.

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