I keep seeing people talk about prediction markets as though they're some magic way to gain knowledge that isn't publically available. (e.g. #9 here.) As I explained in a response to that post, this seems overly optimistic to me. Markets are very good about updating on public information once it's known, but can they reliably do so beforehand?

See for example all the election markets that just track the polls until vote counts start coming in and then update based on tweets. What prediction value are those providing exactly?

Prediction markets are great at aggregating public information, but I'm not convinced they're actually that useful for prediction of future events, especially when those events are highly contingent upon a small group of people or tightly-guarded information.

This market resolves to YES if someone gives me an example of a market (doesn't have to be on Manifold) about some notable real-world event that had a mysteriously high or low price for quite a while, followed by the reason for that price later becoming known.

For example, if this market had been at upwards of 20% before any of the news broke anywhere else, that would convince me that prediction markets might actually work for fraud detection.

Otherwise it resolves to NO at the beginning of 2025.