We did pretty well in this one. Can we keep it up?

Right now what I'd count as "large prediction markets" are PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket. (And maybe some others that I haven't heard of because I don't use them.) Others might emerge in the next 2 years. The final list of what markets count will be finalized a few weeks before the election.

Specifically, this is about predicting which states end up voting for which presidential candidate.

"top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets" means that you sort them all by overall accuracy (briar scores for a few days before the election), then if Manifold is within the top quarter of the list (rounded up), this resolves to YES.