Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?
2
1kṀ502030
9%
Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)
9%
Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)
9%
Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)
12%
Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)
9%
Economy (0 of 17 Resolved)
9%
Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)
12%
Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Manifold Brier)
9%
Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)
12%
Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)
9%
Media (0 of 8 Resolved)
Originally from this Article:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
Overall Competition:
That question (and this question) uses the time locked percentages from Manifold which was two weeks after Nates' article was published (and is why some questions are excluded).
Spreadsheet Used For Tracking
Live Manifold Tracking Market of Individual Questions:
Inverse Market for Nate most Overperforming Manifold:
Notes:
Excluded "Trump Cabinet" category because it only had 4 predictions and 2 were N/A'd due to the time difference
Ties will result in a split winner between the categories tied (has to be an exact tie)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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